Review Rate Sales Estimation
Using review rates as a proxy for sales volume.
Marginal Sales vs. Marginal Effort
Is additional effort worth the additional sales?
Game Sales are Exponential
The distribution of game sales follows an exponential curve.
The amount a consumer would have paid for a product above the price they actually paid.
Word of Mouth Disparity
Negative information is much more likely to be shared and is transferred much faster.
Having a large number of ongoing occurrences beyond the initial spike (high standard deviation).
Product Life Cycle
How sales volume and customer characteristics change as a product ages.
Occam’s Razor is Wrong
The danger in relying on Occam’s Razor in decision making.
The Experimental Approach
Tackle unknowns through designed experiments and analysis.
Regression to the Mean
Over time, outcomes tend to average out.
Thinking in terms of the variability of outcomes rather than in discrete terms.
Law of Small Numbers
Variability is high in small sample sizes.
How advantages can stack over time to yield increasing advantages.
Success and Luck
Is success largely beyond our control?