Review Rate Sales Estimation

Using review rates as a proxy for sales volume.

Marginal Sales vs. Marginal Effort

Is additional effort worth the additional sales?

Game Sales are Exponential

The distribution of game sales follows an exponential curve.

Consumer Surplus

The amount a consumer would have paid for a product above the price they actually paid.

Word of Mouth Disparity

Negative information is much more likely to be shared and is transferred much faster.


Having a large number of ongoing occurrences beyond the initial spike (high standard deviation).

Product Life Cycle

How sales volume and customer characteristics change as a product ages.

Occam’s Razor is Wrong

The danger in relying on Occam’s Razor in decision making.

The Experimental Approach

Tackle unknowns through designed experiments and analysis.

Regression to the Mean

Over time, outcomes tend to average out.

Probabilistic Thinking

Thinking in terms of the variability of outcomes rather than in discrete terms.

Law of Small Numbers

Variability is high in small sample sizes.

Cumulative Advantage

How advantages can stack over time to yield increasing advantages.

Success and Luck

Is success largely beyond our control?